A VISION OF AMERICA

One thing that has struck me throughout this season, including at the RNC and DNC, and during the respective candidate speeches tonight is the remarkable contrast in the crowds that each drew. Obama's crowd in Grant Park looks like America, at least the America I see everyday. It's diverse. Compare that with the portrait of America gathered in Arizona. I think that says volumes about one factor that made this Obama victory possible.

"In the last two presidential elections, the American people divided down the middle, producing a both a geographical and a demographic divide that seemed increasingly set in stone. Blue Democratic America consisted of the west and the east coasts plus the upper Midwest. Red Republican America covered the swaths in between. Women, minorities, the poor and the highly educated voted Democratic. Men, white people, the rich and the religious delivered for the Republicans. In the mind of Mr Bush's strategist Karl Rove this division was the template of 21st century American politics, a base for a conservative counter-attack against 20th-century liberalism.

Rove's America was not just turned on its head yesterday. It was broken up and recast in a very different mould. One of Mr Obama's many achievements has been his refusal to accept the permanence of the blue-red divide. He has reached out across the divide to states and voters that the embattled Democratic party of the Reagan-Bush years had forgotten about, places like the South and the Rockies, voters like farmers and small business people."

--UK's The Guardian

--O.W.

11/4/2008

Hello to President-Elect Barack Obama.


So long to the nightmare of the last eight years. Hello to the next four (at least) of trying to clean it all up.

So long to PUMAs and their ridiculous split-ticket, gov't paralysis strategy. So long to their deluded visions of demographic grandeur; never has "statistically insignificant" been so apt. Hello to Palin/Clinton '12 predictions.

So long to paranoid lefties and hopeful righties who thought a hidden Bradley Effect was going to end this all. Hello to paranoid lefties whispering about assassination.

So long to 24 hour, cable news insanity, hologram punditry. Hello to TMZ and Perez Hilton coming back as our leading news sources.

So long to terrorist pals, atheists and Joe the Plumber. Hello to whatever new mud-slinging the next political cycle brings.

So long to the idea that a Black person can't be President in our lifetime. Hello to crazy talk that "racism is over in America."


Hello to the millions who waited in line to cast a ballot today.

Hello to those who waited their entire lives. And their parents' lives. And their parents' lives...to be able to cast a vote for someone besides a White man.

Hello to the humbling sense of hope and belief that so many Americans have taken to their heart the last few months, especially those for whom "hope" and "belief" have seemed like cruel jokes for so many years.

Hello America. Welcome the new dawn.

--O.W.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH CNN?

wolf blitzer goes undercover

I was vaguely tolerant of all their useless bells and whistles for most of the evening but when they hologrammed in Will.I.Am, I knew it was time to change the channel. Even the barking frat boys at MSNBC (poor Rachel "Sidelined" Maddows) seemed preferable.

--O.W.

THIS IS KIND OF AWESOME, HOWEVER POSSIBLY PREMATURE

"Bush Street in S.F. renamed"

--O.W.

YOUR ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTIONS?

Diebold wins!

Poplicks readers:

1. Go to the Yahoo! Political Dashboard (http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard) and click on the "Create Your Own Scenario" tab.


2. Create the electoral college map scenario that you predict will come to pass this November 4th, 2008.


3. Click "LINK TO THIS" and choose the first option so your scenario cannot and doesn't change.


4. Leave your name and the link in the comments below.


5. Winner gets mad props (and possibly more).


6. In the event of identical submissions, the tie goes to the person who submitted a link first.

Good luck!

--Junichi

ELECTORAL MADNESS

we got this from the Australians. really.
I'll cop to being one of those *cough cough* "coastal elites" who reads The New Yorker - with pride. For those who don't read the magazine, just known that historian Jill Lepore's essays are worth the price of purchase alone and recently, she wrote a wonderfully insightful and informative essay on the history of voting in America that I highly recommend to anyone interested in how our democratic process has worked (or failed to).

It's an oddly uplifting story in a way because if you realize how incredibly convoluted our voting history has been, all the way to present, you'll realize that 1) we've come a long way and 2) change and improvement is possible, even in an age of ACORN hysteria and Diebold paranoia.

One part of this that gave me a very long pause was reading how the "modern" standardization of a secret ballot, distributed by the gov't, had a very dark side which was its use to disenfranchise Black voters in the Jim Crow south South (a drive, lest we forget, lead by Southern Democrats against a then-Black Republican voting bloc) by establishing literacy requirements. In fact, Lepore argues that the wide adoption of this voting standard was driven, nationally, by a desire to prevent the poor, the illiterate and immigrants from having access to the ballot.

This should also serve as a reminder for why it's so important to vote next week. It's not the ultimate expression of one's civic duty or the drive towards social justice - but it is a starting point.

--O.W.

THE NEW SUSAN SMITH THROWS THE LATEST McCAIN CAMPAIGN'S HAIL MARY PASS

Crazy woman or sane McCain supporter who understands McCain's desperation?

It's easy to dismiss Ashley Todd as mentally ill.

Todd is the infamous McCain campaign volunteer who fabricated a story about being sexually assaulted by a Barack Obama supporter after he saw a McCain bumper sticker on her car.

But I don't think she needs mental health treatment at all.

On the contrary, she appears to be a sane woman who had enough marbles to mastermind a story that she knew could hand the McCain campaign the momentum it needed to win the election. Unfortunately, like her predecessor Susan Smith, she was too stupid to concoct a believable story.

For those who haven't been following the story, here's what Todd initially claimed:

Todd initially told investigators she was attempting to use a bank branch ATM on Wednesday night when a 6-foot-4 black man approached her from behind, put a knife blade to her throat and demanded money. She told police she handed the assailant $60 and walked away.

Todd, who is white, told investigators she suspected the man then noticed a John McCain sticker on her car. She said the man punched her in the back of the head, knocked her to the ground and scratched a backward letter "B" into her face with a dull knife.

Police said Todd claimed the man told her that he was going to "teach her a lesson" for supporting the Republican presidential candidate, and that she was going to become a supporter of Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

After later adding allegations of sexual assault, forgetting crucial details, providing inconsistent accounts, and failing a lie detector test, Todd confessed to making the whole thing up.

What I don't understand is why anybody is wondering why a woman would do such a thing.

Isn't it obvious?

If the story were true, Ashley Todd would have provided the ultimate October Surprise that ignited enough of a race war to tilt the election. With McCain over ten points down, she decided it was her duty to throw the necessary Hail Mary pass.

While undoubtedly ignorant, Ashley Todd is sane and smart enough to understand that some white (and non-white) voters can't get past the idea that our next president will be a black man. Ashley Todd wanted to appeal to those who have no difficulty believing a story about a black man who is a violent savage that preys upon young white women near ATM machines.

Now that the story has been debunked, this story would normally deserve no more national attention.

Except that the McCain campaign in Pennsylvania pushed the more partisan and incendiary elements of the story before the media got a hold of it.

This says far more about the state of the McCain campaign than anything else.

Perhaps Fox News Executive VP John Moody said it best (before the lie was exposed):

This incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election.
If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.

For Pittsburgh, a city that has done so much to shape American history over the centuries, another moment of truth is at hand.

Thanks, Ashley Todd, for ending Senator McCain's quest for the presidency.

--Junichi

AT LEAST THEY'RE NOT HAWKING BEER ANYMORE

--O.W.

WHO GOT SERVED?

--O.W.

SCARF THIS UP

hermes goes dem?

Either this is a grand ol' Photoshop job or the person spending $150,000 on Palin's outfits should really check the tags better.

Oh, by the way, does this mean John Edwards $400 haircuts are now redeemed?

--O.W.

THEY EXIST: MUSLIM McCAIN SUPPORTERS

This video captures an interesting confrontation between two anti-Islam McCain supporters and at least two Muslim McCain supporters.

Of course, this all begs the question of why any self-respecting Muslim American would vote with the current GOP.

Credit: CousCous Ramirez

--Junichi

POWELL BACKS OBAMA; DEFENDS MUSLIM AMERICANS

The most remarkable part of this speech, to me at least, is not Powell's reasoned explanation for why he's backing Obama; it's the back half, where he directly criticizes people for their paranoia of Islam and talks about the personal sacrifices Muslim Americans have made - in defense of their country. It goes much, much further than I've heard any other prominent public figure make, including Obama himself (which is kind of sad, however politically predictable).

Powell also shows a lot more class in crossing the partisan line than Lieberman has but we'll save that for the pundits to hash out.

--O.W.

QUESTION OF THE WEEK #139

This Week's Question:


Who's the funnier presidential candidate?

--Junichi

COLIN POWELL MUST BE ON THE VERGE OF ENDORSING OBAMA CUZ HE'S ACTING KINDA BLACK

I realize that calling out Fox News for being ludicrous is as pointless as trying to diagram a Sarah Palin sentence.

But I challenge anyone to find a more asburd Fox News headline and tagline than this one:

Hip-Hop-Dancing Colin Powell Fuels Speculation He'll Endorse Obama: Colin Powell showed off his hip-hop moves at an 'Africa Rising' celebration in London Tuesday, fueling speculation that the former secretary of state is about to endorse Barack Obama for president.

(I put a screen capture of the article at the top of this post, in case you don't want to actually visit the Fox News site.)

What did Colin Powell need to do to fuel speculation that he is about to endorse John McCain? Do the Viennese Waltz at the Hazzard County Convalescent Home's Bingo Night?

Plus, if busting out some sick tongue-wagging, ass-grabbing, b-boy dance move is the equivalent of endorsing Obama, then I think John McCain just endorsed Barack Obama at tonight's debate ...

--Junichi

JOE THE PLUMBER

The most powerful man in America.

--Junichi

RACE AND POLLING: DECONSTRUCTING THE "BRADLEY" EFFECT

truer colors behind closed curtains?
One of the things that has really surprised me is that talking to my university colleagues -professors trained in sociology, political science, psychology, etc. - is how many of them, despite whatever data is out there, seem to think that latent, closet racism will ultimately swing the election for McCain.

It seems that paranoia - however well-founded - trumps the empirical. And sure, race is part of this election no matter how many people (cough cough, Obama) avoid talking about it but there's abundant evidence and analysis to suggest that the assumed racial bias that will only show up on Nov. 4 is unfounded.

Today, the NY Times tackles this issue, debunking the idea that there may be an Bradley Effect waiting to spring on Obama.

Some highlights:

"Among the non-Bradley factors at the intersection of race and polling is something called the reverse Bradley (perhaps more prevalent than the Bradley), in which polls understate support for a black candidate, particularly in regions where it is socially acceptable to express distrust of blacks."

"Research shows that those who refuse to participate in surveys tend to be less likely to vote for a black candidate... Pollsters had a harder time reaching voters with lower levels of education. Less-educated whites are the kind Mr. Obama has had trouble winning over. Conversely, young people are more likely to answer surveys, and they tend to favor Mr. Obama."

"The Bradley gap seems to be disappearing. In this year’s Democratic primaries, University of Washington researchers found a Bradley effect in three states, but a reverse Bradley effect in 12 (in the other 17, polls were within a seven-point margin of error)."

"The Bradley effect, Mr. Greenwald concluded, “has conceptually mutated.” “It’s not something that’s an absolute that we should generally expect, but something that will vary with the cultural context and the desirability of expressing pro-black attitudes.”

All of which is to say: the paranoia is neither justified nor unjustified but it's nowhere near as simple as saying, "a bunch of politically correct White liberals say they're pro-Obama but won't be in November" (which is how the Bradley Effect boils down).

Instead, the point here is that how race plays out can go in many different directions, some which result in a net gain, some in a net loss. It's impossible to fully decipher polling data to know what's what since there's no way to empirically verify that individuals actually vote the way they say they're going to vote.

More important, I think one of the central things to remember is this:

My own feeling is that people are largely being honest about which way they're going to vote and I've yet to see how, by way of empirical data, to suggest otherwise. That's not to say there aren't those who are publicly saying one thing yet voting another; I'm just not remotely convinced those folks represent a sizable demographic. To put it another way: there's plenty of legitimate reasons not to vote for Obama that have nothing to do with race and I think most Americans have no qualms about being upfront with their political choices.

I mean, hell, that's a badge of honor these days, like the jackass wearing a "No-bama"" t-shirt (with the Islamic crescent moon next to the slogan, no less) at the Brentwood Farmer's Market the other day.

The other half of the article is equally interesting: trying to weigh how much Obama may be benefitting in poll numbers by people willing to be polled to begin with.

Again, we'll sort all this out in about 20 days. And then can argue over the results for the next 20 years...

--O.W.

MORE SIGNS THAT THE END OF THE WORLD IS NEAR

Dow Jowned

While your parents' retirement evaporates, here's some news that will help you sniff the end of civilization around the corner:

• Anarrrrrrchy! Those Somali pirates are actually going to score an $8 million booty.

• You also just made $8 million bucks because you took the 8,234,957-to-1 odds and bet a dollar that the Bush Administration would nationalize our banks and bring socialism to the United States.

• The National Security Agency has been eavesdropping on the phone sex conversations of American soldiers overseas. Those of you who insisted that wiretapping would not infringe on the privacy of innocent Americans can apologize now.

• Cocaine dealers are charging a fuel surcharge to customers because of high gas prices. Lesson: save money and save the environment by riding your bike to your coke dealer's house.
  

• Maryland police put nonviolent anti-Iraq War and anti-death penalty activists on their list of suspected terrorists. Apparently, the real Baltimore police are not half as sophisticated as the fake Baltimore police on The Wire.
  

• Beverly Hills Chihuahua grosses $29 million in this economy and tops box office.

• Actual news article headline: "Three dead following quarrel over penis size"

• McCain stops calling us "my friends" and instead opts for the more appropriate phrase "my fellow prisoners":

--Junichi

DON'T IT MAKE MY RED STATES BLUE

Above is what the electoral map would look like if the election were today.

(Source: Yahoo! Political Dashboard / Real Clear Politics)

--Junichi

THE MOMENT I SPEWED CHUNKS

=

The moment she said, "I love to answer these questions without the filter of the mainstream media."

*

Congratulations to those who had "Golly," "You Betcha," "Energy Independence," "Darn It," and "Maverick" in one row of their Palin Bingo card. You won within the first three minutes of the debate.

*

Did she really just argue for the expansion of the Vice President's powers? Or was my Nyquil kicking in?

*

And speaking of drugs, who sedated Senator Joe Biden? He was solid, but uncharacteristically restrained. Did he buy into the ludicrous notion that a gentleman shouldn't attack a lady?

Why didn't he pounce on her for saying that the toxic mess on Main Street was hurting Wall Street? Or when he referred to Nato Commander Gen. McKiernan as McClellan, the former White House Press Secretary? Or when she gave an incoherent non-answer for the umpteenth time?

*

To her credit, Governor Palin beat the spread. She didn't give that moose-in-headlights look that she has showed in situations when reporters are allowed to ask follow-up questions. She didn't refer to affirmative action as a military maneuver. She didn't equate Most Favored Nation status with being America's BFF.

This is too bad, since I would have liked more tracks added to her greatest hits compilation, which TPM compiled in the video below:

*

Of course, it's easy to beat the spread when you were expected to lose by seven touchdowns.

--Junichi

DOH!BOLD

--O.W.